MY JOURNAL FOR MONDAY – OCTOBER 3, 2022
NEWS, BREAKOUTS, MOMENTUM PLAYS & BOTTOMS
The Canadian Technician
Staring at the Quarterly Charts
Greg Schnell | September 30, 2022 at 01:27 PM
First off, the markets have been testing the lows of June for 6 days. Does this eventually give way or do we hold? No shortage of bad news out there. Can it be the worst of the worst and it gets marginally better from here?
For the Nasdaq 100, ending the 3rd quarter on the bottom of the quarterly price bar sure doesn’t look good. I notice the relative strength trend of the QQQ compared to the $SPX in purple is testing the trend line this quarter. We have not seen the Nasdaq 100 underperform the $SPX so significantly in the last 14 years. Look at the size of the drop over the last three quarters.
I have a 5 quarter moving average line in green that has rolled over for the first time since 2008.
The PPO has broken the uptrend.
There is also the $NYA composite. This chart covers the action for the entire NYSE market. The market composite typically underperforms the S&P 500, so that is not new as shown in purple. However, this chart looks ready to close below the line. This line represents the economic uptrend we have been in since 2009.
Nine months ago, there was a huge amount of optimism as the indexes were in the top right corner. This video turned out to be very prescient. Did I get all the calls right? No, some charts changed direction. But we developed an expected plan from technicals and it played out.
For fans of technical analysis, this will be a comforting video. For fans of fundamental analysis, this might work as an introduction to why technicals can help the investment focus.
Next week, we’ll get the opportunity to see 17 technical analysts give us a view towards the fourth quarter at Chartcon 2022.
I am going to be putting out my best charts on the outlook for the fourth quarter! I hope you get some insights and ideas from the conference. There is something special when you get a strong overview of the markets after 11 months pointing lower from 17 analysts. These analysts are some of the best in the business! Technicians will be noticing the changes long before the fundamentals start to improve.
Welcome to Osprey Strategic
Nearly a Decade of Experience in the Financial Markets
Greg Schnell, CMT, MFTA, is a Senior Technical Analyst at StockCharts.com specializing in intermarket and commodities analysis. He is also the co-author of Stock Charts For Dummies (Wiley, 2018). Based in Calgary, Greg is a board member of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts (CSTA) and recent winner of the CSTA’s Technical Analyst of the Year. He is an active member of both the CMT Association and the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
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BREAKOUTS, MOMENTUM PLAYS, & BOTTOMS
AOI.TO – Africa Oil Corp.
CCO.TO – Cameco Corp.
CS.TO – Capstone Mining Corp.
CTS.TO – Converge Technology Solutions Corp.
DFY.TO – Definity Financial Corp.
EFN.TO – Element Financial Corp.
HUT.TO – Hut 8 Mining Corp
KNT.TO – K92 Mining Inc.
NVLH.CA – Nevada Lithium Resources Inc.
PRQ.TO – Petrus Resources Ltd.
SCL.TO – ShawCor Ltd.
SGML.V – Sigma Lithium Corporation
TD.TO – Toronto-Dominion Bank
MOMENTUM ALERT SIGNALS
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Our proprietary momentum scan system searches for abnormal volatility which flags the urgency of buyers. It was designed to signal the potential of momentum coming into an underlying name or sector. The charts issued are to be used as indicators only, not a trigger to buy or sell.– Disclaimer
Once a chart is received, systematic rules are to be used, implemented by the individual (SetYourStop nor ospreystrategic.org holds No Responsibility for one’s actions as the charts given on SetYourStop and ospreystrategic.org are to be used as indicators only and not a trigger to buy or sell) to define and manage risk. Stop-loss orders are an important tool to negate any false signal. The goal is to let winners run while using trailing stop-loss orders to preserve gains.
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